Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Patriots 25, Raiders 20 at Gillette Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Patriots win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 45.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game). The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Patriots' strong defense (5th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Raiders' struggling defense (30th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 13 and Patriots by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 1.7. The game is on CBS.
Result: Raiders 17, Patriots 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.7 points and the total by 16.9.
More: Raiders schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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