Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Steelers 23, Colts 21 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 44.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game). The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game).
Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) meets Steelers' strong defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colts puts up. Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Steelers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 15 and Steelers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Colts would be favoured by 0.8. The game is on CBS.
Result: Colts 22, Steelers 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.2 points and the total by 11.7.
More: Colts schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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