Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jaguars 24, Eagles 18 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Jaguars win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 42.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game). The Jaguars are 4-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+8.4 per game).
Expect Eagles to find it hard going: Jaguars' strong defense (6th) outranks Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense). Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th); that mismatch is where most of Jaguars' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 12 and Jaguars by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Jaguars get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jaguars by about 2.8. The game is on NFL Net.
Result: Eagles 17, Jaguars 19. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.4 points and the total by 6.1.
More: Eagles schedule · Jaguars schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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