Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Seahawks 24, 49ers 23 at Lumen Field in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Seahawks win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 46.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game). The Seahawks are 4-3, scoring 24 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+6.1 per game).
49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) meets Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points 49ers puts up. Seahawks' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) meets 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Seahawks puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 16 and Seahawks by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field 49ers would be favoured by 1.2. The game is on Fox.
Result: 49ers 32, Seahawks 29. 49ers won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4.4 points).
More: 49ers schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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