Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cowboys 29, Buccaneers 21 at AT&T Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Cowboys win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 50.4 combined points.
The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game). The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Buccaneers' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) against Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 9 and Cowboys by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cowboys by about 5.2. The game is on Prime Video.
Result: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16. Buccaneers won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.8 points).
More: Buccaneers schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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