Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texans 27, Cowboys 23 at Reliant Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Texans win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 50 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game). The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) against Texans' strong defense (9th). Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Texans' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 13 and Texans by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texans by about 1. The game is on Fox.
Result: Cowboys 34, Texans 30. Cowboys won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.6 points).
More: Cowboys schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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