Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cardinals 22, Giants 22 at MetLife Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Cardinals win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 44.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Cardinals are 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-9.4 per game). The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game).
Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) should limit Cardinals' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (32nd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 18 and Giants by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Cardinals are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Cardinals 24, Giants 36. Giants won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.7 points).
More: Cardinals schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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