Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bills 27, Patriots 22 at Highmark Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Bills win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 48.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game). The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game).
Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bills' below-average defense (24th); that mismatch is where most of Patriots' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) against Patriots' strong defense (5th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 12 and Bills by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Bills get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bills by about 2.1. The game is on CBS.
Result: Patriots 29, Bills 26. Patriots won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.7 points).
More: Patriots schedule · Bills schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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