Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Seahawks 21, Broncos 20 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Seahawks win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 40.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Seahawks are 4-3, scoring 24 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+6.1 per game). The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game).
Broncos' strong defense (4th) should limit Seahawks' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense). Expect Broncos to find it hard going: Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) outranks Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Seahawks by 18 and Broncos by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Seahawks are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Prime Video.
Result: Seahawks 14, Broncos 17. Broncos won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4 points).
More: Seahawks schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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