Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jaguars 23, Texans 19 at Wembley Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Jaguars win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 42.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Jaguars are 4-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+8.4 per game).
Expect Texans to find it hard going: Jaguars' strong defense (6th) outranks Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense). Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) meets Texans' strong defense (9th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jaguars puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 13 and Jaguars by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Jaguars get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jaguars by about 1. The game is on NFL Net.
Result: Texans 34, Jaguars 31. Texans won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.6 points).
More: Texans schedule · Jaguars schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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