Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Panthers 21, Eagles 21 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Panthers win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 41.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Panthers are 3-3, scoring 26.5 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-1.2 per game). The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game).
Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Panthers puts up. Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense) meets Panthers' below-average defense (27th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Eagles puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Panthers by 18 and Eagles by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Panthers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Panthers 25, Eagles 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.3 points and the total by 2.7.
More: Panthers schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.