Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bears 26, Falcons 25 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Bears win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game). The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game).
Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Falcons' below-average defense (20th); that mismatch is where most of Bears' projected points come from. Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) meets Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Falcons puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 17 and Falcons by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bears are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Bears 31, Falcons 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 3.5.
More: Bears schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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