Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Giants 24, Saints 22 at MetLife Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Giants win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 45.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game). The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game).
Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) should limit Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) meets Saints' below-average defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Giants puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 15 and Giants by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Saints would be favoured by 0.4. The game is on Fox.
Result: Saints 34, Giants 27. Saints won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.2 points).
More: Saints schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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