Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Patriots 27, Jets 17 at Gillette Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Patriots win about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.3 points and 43.5 combined points.
The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game). The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Expect Jets to find it hard going: Patriots' strong defense (5th) outranks Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Jets' below-average defense (21st); that mismatch is where most of Patriots' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 7 and Patriots by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 7.7. The game is on CBS.
Result: Jets 19, Patriots 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.3 points and the total by 1.5.
More: Jets schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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