Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Steelers 20, Buccaneers 20 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 40.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game). The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense). Expect Buccaneers to find it hard going: Steelers' strong defense (8th) outranks Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 17 and Buccaneers by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Steelers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.5 points and the total by 4.7.
More: Steelers schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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