Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colts 28, Titans 17 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Colts win about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.4 points and 44.6 combined points.
The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game). The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game).
Expect Titans to find it hard going: Colts' struggling defense (28th) outranks Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense). Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Titans' below-average defense (25th); that mismatch is where most of Colts' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 7 and Colts by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colts by about 7.8. The game is on Fox.
Result: Titans 26, Colts 20. Titans won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.4 points).
More: Titans schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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