Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rams 32, Cardinals 20 at SoFi Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Rams win about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.5 points and 51.7 combined points.
The Cardinals are 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-9.4 per game). The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game).
Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Cardinals' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (32nd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 5 and Rams by 28 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 8.9. The game is on Fox.
Result: Cardinals 18, Rams 16. Cardinals won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.5 points).
More: Cardinals schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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