Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Packers 28, Cowboys 25 at Lambeau Field in Week 6. That is a lean: Packers win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 53.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game). The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game).
Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) meets Packers' strong defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cowboys puts up. Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Packers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 14 and Packers by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Packers by about 0.5. The game is on NBC.
Result: Cowboys 13, Packers 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.9 points and the total by 17.1.
More: Cowboys schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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