Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected 49ers 30, Commanders 22 at Levi's Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: 49ers win about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 51.9 combined points.
The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game). The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game).
49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: 49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (29th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Commanders by 8 and 49ers by 26 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour 49ers by about 6.4. The game is on ESPN / ABC.
Result: Commanders 17, 49ers 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3 points and the total by 11.9.
More: Commanders schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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