Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Seahawks 24, Chiefs 20 at Lumen Field in Week 7. That is a lean: Seahawks win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 43.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). The Seahawks are 4-3, scoring 24 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+6.1 per game).
Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) should limit Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense). Expect Seahawks to find it hard going: Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) outranks Seahawks' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 13 and Seahawks by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Seahawks by about 0.9. The game is on NBC.
Result: Chiefs 3, Seahawks 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.5 points and the total by 20.7.
More: Chiefs schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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