Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bills 31, Ravens 21 at Highmark Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Bills win about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 52.6 combined points.
The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game). The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bills' below-average defense (24th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) against Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 7 and Bills by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Bills get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bills by about 7.4. The game is on CBS.
More: Ravens schedule · Bills schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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