Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 22, Chiefs 20 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Broncos win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 42.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game).
Broncos' strong defense (4th) should limit Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense). Expect Broncos to find it hard going: Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) outranks Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 15 and Broncos by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Chiefs would be favoured by 1. The game is on CBS.
More: Chiefs schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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