Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 22, Lions 20 at FC Bayern Munich Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Patriots win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 41.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game). The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game).
Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Lions' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Patriots' projected points come from. Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) meets Patriots' strong defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Lions puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 19 and Lions by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Patriots are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
More: Patriots schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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