Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 18, Packers 15 at Lambeau Field in Week 10. That is a lean: Vikings win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 32.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game). The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game).
Packers' strong defense (7th) should limit Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense). Expect Packers to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 20 and Packers by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
More: Vikings schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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