Matchup analysis
Our model projects 49ers 24, Cowboys 23 at AT&T Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: 49ers win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.2 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game). The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: 49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Cowboys' struggling defense (31st). Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th); that mismatch is where most of Cowboys' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 18 and Cowboys by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The 49ers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
More: 49ers schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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