Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 21, Steelers 21 at Paycor Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 42.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game). The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game).
Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense) meets Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Steelers puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Steelers' strong defense (8th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 16 and Bengals by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Steelers would be favoured by 2.1. The game is on NBC.
More: Steelers schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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