Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 20, Chargers 18 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Ravens win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 37.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game). The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game).
Expect Chargers to find it hard going: Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) outranks Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense). Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 14 and Ravens by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Chargers would be favoured by 0.1. The game is on ESPN.
More: Chargers schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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