Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 22, Giants 19 at MetLife Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Jaguars win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 40.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jaguars are 4-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+8.4 per game). The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) against Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th). Jaguars' strong defense (6th) should limit Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 19 and Giants by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Jaguars schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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