NFL Week 11 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 29, 2026

Week 11 of the 2026 NFL season has 13 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Steelers at Eagles (0.3-point margin), the highest projected total is Titans at Cowboys (48.2 points) and the lowest is Vikings at 49ers (34.9). 5 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

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Thu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ESTPrime Video
Colts21
Texans24
We project Texans 24-21, a 3-point margin with 45.2 total points; Texans win 60% of the time.
Our number
HOU by 3
Total 45.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — HOU by 3 · Total 45.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texans 60% · total 45.2Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Dolphins18
Bills25
We project Bills 25-18, a 6.1-point margin with 42.9 total points; Bills win 69% of the time.
Our number
BUF by 6.1
Total 42.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — BUF by 6.1 · Total 42.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bills 69% · total 42.9Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Saints18
Bears25
We project Bears 25-18, a 7.6-point margin with 43.2 total points; Bears win 73% of the time.
Our number
CHI by 7.6
Total 43.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CHI by 7.6 · Total 43.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bears 73% · total 43.2Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Titans23
Cowboys26
We project Cowboys 26-23, a 2.8-point margin with 48.2 total points; Cowboys win 59% of the time.
Our number
DAL by 2.8
Total 48.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DAL by 2.8 · Total 48.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Cowboys 59% · total 48.2Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Buccaneers23
Lions21
We project Buccaneers 23-21, a 1.8-point margin with 44.4 total points; Buccaneers win 56% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
TB by 1.8
Total 44.5
Book line
Not posted
Our number — TB by 1.8 · Total 44.5 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Buccaneers 56% · total 44.4Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Cardinals18
Chiefs23
We project Chiefs 23-18, a 5.7-point margin with 40.8 total points; Chiefs win 68% of the time.
Our number
KC by 5.7
Total 40.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — KC by 5.7 · Total 40.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chiefs 68% · total 40.8Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Jaguars22
Giants19
We project Jaguars 22-19, a 2.4-point margin with 40.8 total points; Jaguars win 58% of the time.
Our number
JAX by 2.4
Total 40.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — JAX by 2.4 · Total 40.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jaguars 58% · total 40.8Full preview →

Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTFox
Ravens21
Panthers23
We project Panthers 23-21, a 2.9-point margin with 43.9 total points; Panthers win 59% of the time.
Our number
CAR by 2.9
Total 43.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CAR by 2.9 · Total 43.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Panthers 59% · total 43.9Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 4:05 PM ESTFox
Jets20
Chargers21
We project Chargers 21-20, a 1-point margin with 40 total points; Chargers win 53% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
LAC by 1
Total 40.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LAC by 1 · Total 40.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chargers 53% · total 40Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ESTCBS
Raiders16
Broncos25
We project Broncos 25-16, a 9.5-point margin with 40.9 total points; Broncos win 77% of the time.
Our number
DEN by 9.5
Total 40.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DEN by 9.5 · Total 40.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Broncos 77% · total 40.9Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ESTCBS
Steelers20
Eagles19
We project Steelers 20-19, a 0.3-point margin with 38.7 total points; Steelers win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 38.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 38.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Steelers 51% · total 38.7Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM ESTNBC
Vikings19
49ers16
We project Vikings 19-16, a 3.9-point margin with 34.9 total points; Vikings win 62% of the time.
Our number
MIN by 3.9
Total 34.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — MIN by 3.9 · Total 34.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Vikings 62% · total 34.9Full preview →
Mon, Nov 23, 8:15 PM ESTESPN
Bengals23
Commanders21
We project Bengals 23-21, a 1.8-point margin with 44.3 total points; Bengals win 56% of the time.
Our number
CIN by 1.8
Total 44.3
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CIN by 1.8 · Total 44.3 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bengals 56% · total 44.3Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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