Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cowboys 26, Titans 23 at AT&T Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Cowboys win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 48.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game). The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game).
Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense) meets Cowboys' struggling defense (31st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Titans puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) against Titans' below-average defense (25th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 14 and Cowboys by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cowboys by about 0.2. The game is on Fox.
More: Titans schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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