Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bills 25, Dolphins 18 at Highmark Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Bills win about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 42.9 combined points.
The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game). The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game).
Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Bills' below-average defense (24th) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense). Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd); that mismatch is where most of Bills' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 11 and Bills by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Bills get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bills by about 3.5. The game is on Fox.
More: Dolphins schedule · Bills schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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