Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 25, Saints 18 at Soldier Field in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Bears win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.6 points and 43.2 combined points.
The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game). The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game).
Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) should limit Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) against Saints' below-average defense (23rd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 9 and Bears by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 5. The game is on Fox.
More: Saints schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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