Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buccaneers 23, Lions 21 at Ford Field in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Buccaneers win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 44.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game). The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Lions' below-average defense (26th). Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 19 and Lions by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Buccaneers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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