Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 19, 49ers 16 at Estadio Banorte in Week 11. That is a lean: Vikings win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 34.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game). The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game).
49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense). Expect 49ers to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks 49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 21 and 49ers by 13 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
More: Vikings schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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