Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 25, Raiders 16 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Broncos win about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.5 points and 40.9 combined points.
The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game). The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game).
Broncos' strong defense (4th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) against Raiders' struggling defense (30th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 7 and Broncos by 26 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Broncos by about 6.9. The game is on CBS.
More: Raiders schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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