Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 23, Commanders 21 at Northwest Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 44.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game). The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (29th). Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) meets Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Commanders puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 19 and Commanders by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bengals are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
More: Bengals schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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