Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 23, Cardinals 18 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Chiefs win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 40.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cardinals are 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-9.4 per game). The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game).
Expect Cardinals to find it hard going: Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) outranks Cardinals' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense). Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cardinals' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Chiefs' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 11 and Chiefs by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chiefs by about 3.1. The game is on CBS.
More: Cardinals schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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