Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 20, Eagles 19 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 38.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game). The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game).
Expect Steelers to find it hard going: Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) outranks Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense). Steelers' strong defense (8th) should limit Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 17 and Eagles by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Steelers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Steelers schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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