Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 22, Packers 19 at SoFi Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Rams win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 40.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game). The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game).
Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense). Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) meets Packers' strong defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rams puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 13 and Rams by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 1. The game is on Netflix.
More: Packers schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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