Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cowboys 24, Eagles 22 at AT&T Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Cowboys win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 45.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game). The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game).
Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Eagles' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) against Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 15 and Cowboys by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Eagles would be favoured by 0.7. The game is on Fox.
More: Eagles schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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