Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 24, Lions 23 at Ford Field in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Bears win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game). The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) against Lions' below-average defense (26th). Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 18 and Lions by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bears are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Bears schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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