Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 20, Broncos 19 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 39.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game). The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game).
Expect Broncos to find it hard going: Steelers' strong defense (8th) outranks Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense). Broncos' strong defense (4th) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 16 and Steelers by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Broncos would be favoured by 1.6. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Broncos schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.