Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 22, Falcons 16 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Vikings win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 37.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game). The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game).
Vikings' elite defense (1st) should limit Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense). Expect Vikings to find it hard going: Falcons' below-average defense (20th) outranks Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 11 and Vikings by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 3.1. The game is on Fox.
More: Falcons schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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