Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 23, Ravens 19 at Reliant Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Texans win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.9 points and 41.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game). The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) meets Texans' strong defense (9th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ravens puts up. Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) meets Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texans puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 12 and Texans by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texans by about 2.3. The game is on CBS.
More: Ravens schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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