Matchup analysis
Our model projects Browns 23, Raiders 17 at Huntington Bank Field in Week 12. That is a lean: Browns win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 40.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game). The Browns are 5-2, scoring 19 and allowing 20.9 points per game (-1.9 per game).
Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense). Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.2 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Browns puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 11 and Browns by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Browns get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Browns by about 3. The game is on Fox.
More: Raiders schedule · Browns schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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