Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 25, Saints 20 at Paycor Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Bengals win about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.2 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game). The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game).
Expect Saints to find it hard going: Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) outranks Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Saints' below-average defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 12 and Bengals by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bengals by about 2.6. The game is on CBS.
More: Saints schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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