Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 25, Giants 20 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Colts win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 44.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game). The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game).
Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Giants' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) against Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Giants by 13 and Colts by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colts by about 1.5. The game is on Fox.
More: Giants schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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