Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jets 21, Dolphins 20 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Jets win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 40.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game). The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game).
Expect Jets to find it hard going: Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd) outranks Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Jets' below-average defense (21st) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 17 and Dolphins by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jets are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Jets schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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