Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 21, 49ers 17 at Levi's Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Seahawks win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 37.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Seahawks are 4-3, scoring 24 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+6.1 per game). The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game).
Seahawks' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) meets 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Seahawks puts up. 49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) meets Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points 49ers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Seahawks by 21 and 49ers by 12 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Seahawks are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
More: Seahawks schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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