Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cardinals 24, Commanders 23 at State Farm Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Cardinals win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 47.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game). The Cardinals are 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-9.4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (32nd). Cardinals' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Commanders' struggling defense (29th); that mismatch is where most of Cardinals' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Commanders by 16 and Cardinals by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Commanders would be favoured by 1.2. The game is on Fox.
More: Commanders schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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